Trade Advice

--- Thom of Maine wrote:

> I've got a trade offer in my other league... LJ for Maroney... do I take it?

Wow. Hmm... Sounds like the other guy is big time Pats fan homer, like me! ;-) If he's giving you the Larry Johnson, the unanimous #2 pick behind LT, and he isn't hurt, I'd be inclined to take it. Maroney may never get in the end zone this year, and LJ you can trade again later on if you want. Here's the rub: If your league has trade reviews, it might not go through. This early in the year, other guys might not take too kindly to trades that cross draft round boundaries.

One thing I like to do in fantasy, as well as reality, is buy low. Not only for the obvious reasons, but because you're sticking the other guy with the bad stats. Those stats happened, they're gone, they're locked in. The current owner can never undo those or get those back. Thus far, Johnson has been, well, not good. All that matters is what happens from here. LJ's schedule will ease up, he'll get stronger, and acquiring him right now could be the kind of bold move that wins championships.

For Maroney's part, don't get me wrong, I love him. (Does the term "man crush" mean anything to you?) But Coach B is committed to the two-headed-monster approach to the backfield. Sammy Morris is there, and while he is, he diminishes Maroney's fantasy value.

The "Non-DL" Disabled List

What's more infuriating to a fantasy owner, especially this time of year? I've got 2 key guys, Manny Ramirez and Corey Patterson, who are "out." Three, actually, if you count C. J. Wilson.

Manny Ramirez continues to sit on the bench, though he did swing the bat for the first time since August 28, according to the Boston Herald. His return is unknown.

September 12, 2007
Corey Patterson missed another game with a sprained left ankle Tuesday, the Baltimore Sun reports. He hasn't played since last Wednesday.

RotoWire | Sat, September 8

Wilson will remain sidelined until Tuesday with a sore ribcage, the team's official site reports.

Spin: The Rangers would like to stay away from Wilson pitching on back-to-back nights the rest of the season but aren't planning on shutting him down just yet. Wilson's struggled in September and he'll see a drop in save chances as a result.

What's a fantasy owner to do? You don't (gulp) drop 'em, do you?!

Not fantasy sports per se...

...But it is a fantasy to someday own (ok, even be in the presence of) the greatest, most famous baseball card ever printed.

Well this just in from Beckett News:

The finest known example of the famed 1909-11 T206 Honus Wagner was once again sold this week, this time for a record-setting $2.8M in a private transaction conducted by SCP Auctions. The card, graded NM-MT 8 by PSA, was at one time owned by Wayne Gretzky in addition to being the grand prize for a national promotion conducted by Wal-Mart.

Prior to this most recent transaction, SCP Auctions had sold the card this past February for $2.35M to another private party and had themselves taken a minority ownership position in the card.

"The T206 Honus Wagner card is an icon, not only in the field of baseball card collecting, but in the larger field of Americana," said David Kohler, president and CEO of SCP Auctions. "We are privileged to have been involved in the sale of this card, not once but twice."

It's estimated that as few as 70 copies of the T206 Wagner exist to this day. To date, 33 copies have been professionally graded (29 by PSA and four by SGC). Of those, 25 copies are graded between Poor 1 and Good 2, six are VG 3, one is EX 5 and, of course, one very newsworthy copy is NM-MT 8.

What they don't mention (because they assume you already know the story) is how the card came to be so rare in the first place. Back in the day of flannel uniforms and tiny leather gloves, cardboard pictures of these new-fangled professional "base-ball" players were sold as premium incentives to get you to purchase a certain brand of cigarettes. Not gum, but cancer sticks. Wow. Can you imagine? Anyway, Honus Wagner of "Pittsburg" was something of an odd duck in 1909: a non-smoker. When he found out his likeness was being used to peddle cigs, he protested. The company stopped printing new ones, and the few that had gotten out became rarities. When you consider that most baseball cards, for which there was no real hobby market until the late 70s, were the first thing mothers and wives took to the town dump, it's no wonder there are only a few of them left. It's a compelling story, as evidenced by the new book just published in May, simply entitled "The Card." If you don't happen to find T-206 Honus Wagner original in an attic or flea market, the book would make a lovely gift for the collectibles enthusiast in your life. Hint, hint. ;-)

ARE YOUR READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!

Introducing... The 2007 Super Squirrels!*

*(I searched Google images for squirrels and found this adorable little guy about to unleash the powers of planet Krypton on my fantasy football opponents. I signed him up as my mascot immediately.)

For perspective on the upcoming season, let's look back at my previous Squirrel-themed fantasy teams. In 2004, the Bullwinkle Squirrels took home the Nerfball League championship. That year, Shaun Alexander's amazing 18.4 points per game led the way. Willis McGahee was my #2 back, and the two have been Squirrel keepers ever since.

In 2005, I went from first to worst with a 4-9 record, despite a respectable 90.7 weekly average (5th best in the league).

In 2006, I finished 6-7 with a miserable, pathetic, embarrassing 76.2/week, which was by far the worst in the league. I blame Shaun Alexander for this; since he was listed as questionable for most of the season, I was unable to replace him, DL him, or some weeks to decide whether or not to start him. Even worse, with McGahee laboring in a transitioning Buffalo offense, his last 6 weeks of the season were wildly inconsistent: 20, 8, 23, 4, 17, -1. Let's just say it was a tough year and move on, shall we?

This season, my hopes once again rest on the shoulder pads of Alexander and McGahee. And there's plenty of reason for optimism here. Alexander looks healthy again and is the trendy preseason pick for comeback player of the year. Meanwhile, McGahee is the new featured back in Baltimore, where he figures to get worked like a dog. (This is a good thing. I mean, is anything worse for fantasy players than the NFL's trend toward RB job-sharing? What's next, telecommuting?!)

The Super Squirrels' season is already off to a good start. After we all rostered 13 keepers, I used the 2nd overall pick in the draft to land Willis McGahee's replacement in Buffalo, rookie Marshawn Lynch. If you're looking for a 3rd RB for injury depth, you can do a whole lot worse than Lynch. Here's ESPN's 2007 SEASON OUTLOOK:

When they closed the book on Willis McGahee, the Bills couldn't have guessed that their next running back would be such a page-turner. This first-rounder is gritty and explosive, generating rare power for his size (5'11", 217). Lynch's straight-line style might not consistently click behind Buffalo's iffy O-line, but those five slabs of beef should serve him well on the goal line. When he does get a crease, his burst and top-end speed are the stuff of 40-yard runs (which is why his receiving potential also excites). If Lynch stays healthy, flex production should be the bare minimum.

Here's the rest of the Super Squirrels opening week roster:

Eli Manning , NYG QB		14	11.8	--
Shaun Alexander , Sea RB		29	7.8	--
Willis McGahee , Bal RB		28	8.9	--
Anquan Boldin , Ari WR		17	8.8	--
Jerricho Cotchery , NYJ WR		21	8.6	--
Alge Crumpler , Atl TE P		2	7.5	--
Brian Urlacher , Chi LB P		6	10.3	--
Aaron Schobel , Buf DE		10	6.6	--
Dre' Bly , Den CB		25	6.1	--
Jason Elam , Den K

LET'S GO SQUIRRELS!

Feat of Clay

Congrats to 23-year-old Red Sox rookie Clay Buchholz! (Check this out, this is neat... My pal Jeff blogged the no-no as it happened. I always thought that was one of the cooler applications of the blogging tool -- instant posting on live events as they unfold.) Now, let's just sit back and watch Buchholz get snapped up off the waiver wires now, shall we?

I see my brother picked him up in the TQS league at, I dunno, about the 4th or 5th inning? Nice job Toddy!

Recent Transactions

Team	Type	Pos	Player	From	Date
The Scotsmen	Drop	RP/SP	Hennessey, Brad		Sat 9/1 9:48 PM
The Scotsmen	Add	SP	Buchholz, Clay	Free Agent	Sat 9/1 9:48 PM
Doubting Thomas	Activate	SP	Martinez, Pedro	Reserve roster	Sat 9/1 8:46 PM

But check this action out in my ESPN league.

Sep 1 11:10 PM		MBN dropped Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Tex to W MBN added Clay Buchholz, Bos from FA to BE
Sep 1 3:30 PM		BROK dropped Noah Lowry, SF to W BROK traded Brandon Phillips, Cin to SKWL SKWL traded Felix Hernandez, Sea to BROK SKWL traded Alan Embree, Oak to BROK
Sep 1 12:14 PM		SKWL dropped Clay Buchholz, Bos to FA SKWL added Jon Lester, Bos from FA to BE
Sep 1 12:13 PM		SKWL dropped Joe Saunders, LAA to W SKWL added Clay Buchholz, Bos from FA to BE

As you can see, I was way ahead on this, picking up the lanky baby-faced rookie nearly 7 hours before he took the mound! (In fact, I picked him up for his first spot start and was rewarded with a W back on Aug 17.) However, ESPN, in its wisdom, said it was too late for me to add him for tonight's start. Given that he would be a wasted roster spot for the next 5 days, and that I'm in a vicious battle for the league championship, I dropped him a minute later for tomorrow's starter Jon Lester, who is suddenly now officially soooo yesterday's news when it comes to Boston phenom rookie pitchers.

Now, why Buchholz didn't end up needing a waiver claim after I dropped him is a bit of a mystery; normally free agents going back into the pool need to pass through a 3-day waiver period. I'll have to check the rules to find the loophole, but in the meantime I find it amusing that Murder By Numbers (currently behind me in 3rd place) picked up Buchholz mere seconds after the ump rang up Nick Markakis. I'm looking forward to the added/dropped page tomorrow.

Oh yah, and in other news, you'll notice above that I pulled off a trade at the deadline! I offered King Felix, who's been more like a petulant prince this season, and threw in Alan Embree, who's probably not getting many more saves this year, to a team well down in the standings in an attempt to scoop Brandon Phillips, whom I've been calling my "Secret Weapon" in my TQS league. To my amazement, the deal was accepted! Check his stats, man. He's been a STUD all year, and I can only hope it continues for the last month of the season. Here's what RotoWire says about him:

Phillips is currently hitting .290 with 26 homers, 79 RBI and 25 stolen bases.

Spin: Phillips has always had good speed on the basepaths, but his power at the plate this season has been a pleasant surprise for Reds fans. With a month left to the regular season, Phillips is only one home run away from holding the Reds franchise record for second basemen, and also has a shot to become the first Red to reach the 30-30 mark since Barry Larkin did it in 1996.

Finally, the latest addition to the Siamese Fightin' Squirrels is Mark Mulder. I had an open DL spot and figured I'd take a flier on him. The scoop is that he's healthy a year after rotator cuff surgery and may start Weds or Thursday vs. the Pirates. The Cardinals have been playing better lately, so Mulder could be a free source of Ws over the last month. But, yes, I'd rather have Buchholz!

J-Up Goes Down; Josh Fields of Dreams

J-Up Goes Down

Given that I'm in the midst of a furious charge to the top in my ESPN league standings, and given that we're not doing keepers this year due to a glitch in the draft this spring, I had no choice but to cut ties with the Justin Upton phenomenon. Of course, my league mates had to make fun, since I made a big deal about winning the waiver wire lottery to get him in the first place. But he's not playing every day, and after that initial splash, he hasn't been producing anything but outs. So long J-Up. I'll be keeping an eye on you though!

Speaking of young D-Backs, in my other league I just picked up Chris B. Young, the year's most surprising 20-20 guy, where he was unfathomably still on the waiver wire. I'm out of contention in that league, but I can still play spoiler and maybe it'll piss off one of the playoff teams. ;-) It's a shallow league... One where I can drop a J.D. Drew or even Corey Hart if he slumps and not worry about it. Weird, I know.

Staying in Arizona, their "can't-miss" shortstop is still missing in action since I dropped him. Of course we all know the sting of painful irony where the player you finally give up on starts tearing up the league the next day. (Yes, Saltalamacchia's big 2 hr, 7 RBI day was the day after I dropped him.) But even my dropping him didn't jump-start Drew's season. It's just been a bad year for Drews, both Stephen and J.D. Makes you wonder how Tim's doing. Maybe he was the smart one and retired just in time.

Josh Fields of Dreams

But the big news is I've finally found a 3B to replace Mike Lowell. I experimented for a while with Kevin Kouzmanoff (who got me 6 homers his short stint, can't complain too much), Alex Gordon (4 hrs, 3 steals), and (yet another D-back) Mark Reynolds. But Fields has homered 3 times in the past week, now has 8 since I picked him up, and leads all AL rookies in homers with 17. Even better, Fields is now manning left for the hapless Bleach Sox, so he'll get the flexibility of OF eligibility in a week or two. Joe Crede, who is a lot like Fields when you think about it, won't be back til next year, at which time Chicago will have a decision to make. With the left-field experiment, it looks like they want to keep both big young bats in the lineup.

Berkman-Lowell Trade Update

In 58 games for me, Lowell hit .312 with 11 HRs, 46 RBI, 30 Runs, and 2 steals.
In 65 games for me since then, Berkman has hit .292 with 16 HRs, 45 RBI, 49 Runs, and 2 steals.

For my trading partner, in 59 games since the deal Lowell has hit a blistering .343, but with only 6 HRs, 44 RBI, and 28 runs.

As a die-hard Sox fan, I'm glad Lowell hasn't had the 2nd half slump many predicted. As a fantasy manager, I feel badly I missed out on that batting average, but Lowell's RBI are identical to Berkman's, his homers are way fewer, and Berkman scores a ton more runs. When you consider that my partner was stuck with a putrid .250 average and only 8 of his 24 homers to begin the year, I think I'm winning the deal at this point.

If further evidence is needed, I also traded places with him in the standings. Now I'm in 2nd and he's in 4th!

Christmas in August?

I awoke to the morning, an ordinary morning like any other, and flipped open my laptop. I hit refresh on my ESPN league tab and what to my wondering eyes did appear...

Aug 6 4:35 AM

SKWL dropped Dave Roberts, SF to W SKWL added Justin Upton, Ari from W to BE

I was stunned. I did a double-take, just like a cartoon character. My head was shaking and my eyes were popping out further than is optometrist recommended. Somehow the waiver wire prize of the season had fallen to #5 in the claim queue!

Great, I thought. Now what?! Clearly, coffee was in order.

Properly caffeinated, I noticed J-Up was 2-4 again last night, making him 4 for his last 8. He very well could be "for real." Now I need to figure out how to juggle Jonny Gomes, Corey Patterson, and Upton. Strategically, I need homers in this league right now if I want to move up from 4th place. And it's not decided yet, but the league is leaning against keepers of any kind next year. Stay tuned... This could get intersting!

For more on the Upton phenomenon, and some excellent insight on the subject of adding rookies sooner rather than later, check out Andy Behrens on Yahoo! Coincidentally enough, he figures a Dave Roberts type will be available if J-Up is a bust out of the gate.